Overview
Familiarity and knowledge of the general security situation are of prime importance when applying the SRM process. The SRM assessment must be based on facts, and the facts must be relative to the environment in which the organization, project, or activity is taking place. Using the steps and tools contained in this course without a detailed understanding of the security environment, or using incorrect or erroneous information, will lead to inappropriate and possibly dangerous security decisions.
To ensure that you have the required knowledge of the security situation in the SRM Area under analysis, this step of the SRM process is the completion of the Situational Analysis.
Situational analysis is a collection of concise narratives that aim to illustrate and identify the drivers of insecurity in the environment. It is this narrative overview of the current security situation that “sets the scene” and provides the context for structured subjective assessments to follow. Most importantly, it provides a common understanding of the environment from the security perspective for the security decision-makers.
Some of the points in a situational analysis may cover the whole country, while others may only apply to a specific SRM Area. The extent of the Situational Analysis will depend upon the reason for which the SRM is being applied. For example, the Situational Analysis of an SRM process for a specific project or operation may refer to the broader, more comprehensive Situational Analysis in the Country RMA (Risk Management Assessment), or a shorter, more focused situational analysis may be done for a quick one-off, time-bound risk assessment.
Since the SRM process addresses the current situation and managing current risk, historical details should only be included when they have a direct impact on the current environment. When composing the narrative, the assessment author needs to be constantly aware of the question, “so what impact does this have on security”; if the answer is that it does not impact the security environment, then it does not need to be included.
The level of detail in the situational analysis will depend on the information available, the analytical capacity of the security team, and the complexity of the security environment. There are eight (8) key areas that need to be considered, but if any of the areas have no impact on the security situation, they do not need to be unnecessarily exhaustive:
Political.
This section addresses the political makeup of the country in general and the SRM Area in particular. Political, in this sense, does not mean an analysis of the politics of the country but rather an analysis of the various factors which make up the political landscape. These could include the stability of the government, the quality of the bureaucracy, information about groups with competing claims over rights or resources, and any conflicts within or outside the country that could affect the operating environment. Conflicts could be internal (including civil war, terrorism, civil disorder, and/or religious or ethnic tensions) or external (e.g., conflicts in neighboring countries and cross-border conflict). There is no fixed list of topics under this heading, and a thorough knowledge of the historical and current political dynamics is required to successfully isolate those factors which may affect security.
Economic.
In many countries, economic factors are one of the main drivers of instability. The work of most organizations is therefore dependent upon understanding these economic factors and how they may impact the identification of threats. Economic factors may result in the presence of IDPs, crime, urban or other internal migration, or the relative economic primacy of a specific group over another. It is important, however, to note that this is not a detailed analysis of the economy but rather a brief description of the economic situation as it affects the stability of the country and, more specifically, the safety and security of the organization. It may still be necessary to briefly describe whether the currency is under threat, the most recent trends in economic factors, which groups or sections of the population hold the majority of the wealth, and whether the country requires significant foreign/donor assistance to prop up a weak economy. It is not expected that this should be a lengthy section of the Situation Analysis.
Social.
The social fabric of a society has a significant effect on the safety and security of activities. One of the main manifestations of the breakdown in societal norms is increased crime rates, and therefore law and order together with crime form the basis of the discussion under this heading. Other important elements of the analysis of society are the ethnic, cultural, religious, economic, age, and gender distribution of the population, the educational breakdown of the population, as well as the main social issues on the national agenda.
Environmental.
This section is used to describe the physical attributes of the SRM area, keeping in mind the description is to later identify the relevant security threats. Scarcity of water, flooding, avalanches, extreme weather conditions, earthquakes, and typhoons, for example, should be described as they impact security. Describe the land covering, such as surface area, vegetation, forests, deserts, plains, rivers, lakes, etc., with the aim of describing how geography and climate affect the organizations’ staff, facilities, and project delivery. The frequency and geographic distribution of natural disasters are important as these types of events often affect limited areas for limited periods and are not continuous. The analysis of the environment has only one purpose, which is to understand environmental factors that may affect security.
Infrastructure.
Infrastructure is very important to project delivery and the economic well-being of a country. This section describes the infrastructure, meaning the man-made components of the country rather than its natural geography. The discussion should include the following items if they affect security: transportation, telecommunications, media, internet access, electricity, and housing.
Country Security Forces.
A description of the security forces is essential to understand the inhibiting context later in the SRM process. This section should be divided into military, police, and corrections subsections.
Threat Groups/Actors.
This section is used to describe all groups and organizations which threaten instability and/or the control of the legitimate government in the SRM Area. They could be internal and/or external to the country and be comprised of citizens of the host nation or other countries or even armed forces of other countries. These groups could be linked to global or regional threat groups or may be specific only to the SRM Area. This section is about organized groups and includes terrorist groups, criminal groups, armed tribal militias, and the like. These should be described in terms of their affiliations, leadership, size, agenda, capacity, training, geographic distribution, funding, international support, acceptance by local populations, and activities to date. It is important to note how these groups view the organization and how they have affected security in the past.
Mandate.
As applicable, describe any Mandate in place in the SRM Area and/or the strategic priorities of the Country Team. This must be done in the broadest of terms, as a full Project Assessment should be part of the SRM Process. This section describes how this mandate and/or strategic priorities potentially affect the security situation and the security of the organization in the SRM Area. How is the mandate viewed by all parties? Have own actions created problems in the past? Consider the perceptions of the local population and how they may react to the mandate. How could these past problems continue to affect security?